Crunching the Hydro Numbers 2009: Fourth Quarter Update on the CDM

Update:

• The number of projects that entered the CDM pipeline fell 42% from the third quarter (See Fig. 1).
• The percent of hydropower projects entering the CDM pipeline relative to all CDM projects continues to be on a downward trend since 2007 (see Fig. 2).
• According to a new Point Carbon survey (sub req'd), one third of registered CDM projects never go on to receive CERs, or certified emissions reductions credits. Most notable are landfill gas and other waste projects. Arne Eik, analyst at Point Carbon, attribute the lack of issuance to: "problems with project finance prompted by the economic downturn, uncertainty about post-2012, and the difficulties some projects had in demonstrating they can cut emissions." 
• The percent of projects rejected out of the total number of projects requesting registration was 7.4% in 2007, 3.8% in 2008, and 1.4% in 2009 (this does not include withdrawn projects).
• 48% of all hydro projects in the CDM pipeline have requested registration since 2004, while 40% of all hydro projects have actually been registered. Figs. 3 and 4 show the fate of projects requesting registration and being registered by year. This graph shows the dramatic increase over the last year of projects that the Executive Board has requested be reviewed.
• Hydro projects continue to be the most prevalent type of project in the CDM pipeline (27% fo all projects). 70% of hydro projects are located in China. Figs. 5 and 6 are based on the UNFCCC CDM pipeline database, last updated on December 20, 2009.

Click on the following graphs to see an enlargement:

Fig. 1: Projects entering the CDM pipeline	Percentage of CDM Projects At Validation That are Hydro
Fig. 3: Projects requesting registration by year	Fig. 4: Projects registered each year requiring a review or corrections
Fig. 5: CDM large hydro projects by country/region	Fig. 6: CDM projects by type

You can receive weekly email updates of new CDM hydro projects entering the pipeline and download our monthly spreadsheet by visiting our CDM spreadsheet page. You can see updates from previous quarters here. Data is based on the UNEP Risoe spreadsheet (December 1, 2009) unless otherwise stated. Feel free to contact me about any of these calculations.